Nevada is a state Republicans can flip in 2022.
A poll from Rasmussen found Republicans having 5 point leads in the Senate and Governor races.
And now, early voting numbers are showing the flip is more likely.
Early in-person voting is wrapping up today in Nevada with almost 470,000 votes tallied as of Thursday, and trends so far suggest that enthusiasm is lagging among Democratic voters in the Silver State.
The Nevada Senate race, with Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and GOP challenger Adam Laxalt, is one of four toss-up races that will determine the balance of power in Congress.
The Democrats lead by 1% in early in-person voting so far, or just 5,200 ballots. This could spell trouble for Democrats, according to analysis from The Nevada Independent.
The analysis shows that Democrats are far behind their 2018 pace.
At this time in 2018 Democrats held a 14,500 ballot advantage (3.4%) – this year that lead is only 5,200 (1%).
Thirteen days in the books, and the outlook changed very little in Nevada on Thursday: The Dems are in trouble, but the questions is if it is big trouble or little trouble.
The Dem statewide lead is now just 1 percent, or 5,200 ballots. At this time in 2018, it was 14,500, or 3.4 percent. A last-day surge pushed it to 23,000, or 3.7 percent. Even if there were a surge today, the lead will get nowhere near that 2018 number. Furthermore, if you extrapolate the rural numbers to what the votes will almost surely look like, it erases the Clark Dem firewall. So once again, I say it: Washoe is the decider.
But – and this is hard to predict this year when mail has been down and erratic – in 2020, which is relevant because of the mail ballot patterns that began last cycle. the Dems added more than 10 percent to their firewall before Election Day because of mail that came in Saturday and Monday. We’ll see if that happens this time. (Mail can come in and be counted for four days after Nov. 8, so long as it is postmarked on Election Day. Now the way the Post Office has been working this cycle…)
It gets even worse for Democrats when you look at Nevada’s most Democrat-heavy county, Clark County.
At this point in 2018 around 71,000 Dem voters had already turned out – the number is only 25,000 in 2022.
Will Republicans flip Nevada?